Gievenbeck v Vreden prediction · Oberliga - Westfalen

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Gievenbeck 2–2 Vreden GIEVENBECK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gievenbeck win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.984

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gievenbeck are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gievenbeck 54%, draw 21%, Vreden 26%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Gievenbeck v VredenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gievenbeck win54%

Draw21%

Vreden win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundWestfalen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gievenbeck

Vreden

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gievenbeck winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Gievenbeck a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gievenbeck v Vreden~~2.20 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 4 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 22~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gievenbeck win	54%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Vreden win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Gievenbeck or draw	74%	–	–
Gievenbeck clean sheet	24%	–	–
Vreden clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.0 3.8 2.9 1 5.7 8.4 6.0 3.0 2 6.1 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 4.4 6.3 4.6 2.3 4 2.5 3.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gievenbeck down, Vreden across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,686 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gievenbeck at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vreden away: 2.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Gievenbeck, 1.48 for Vreden. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GIE 4–2 VRE · VRE 2–0 GIE · GIE 1–2 VRE · VRE 0–1 GIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 4 Sept

GIEVENBECK

WWWLWW2–1 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 0–6 · 3–0 · 2–1

VREDEN

DLWWWW4–4 · 1–6 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	10	+8	22
2	Vreden	10	+7	22
3	Eintracht Rheine	11	+7	20
4	Maaslingen	10	+5	19
5	Erkenschwick	10	+5	18
6	Sprockhovel	10	+9	17
7	Lippstadt 08	11	+1	17
8	ASC Dortmund	10	+5	16
9	Arminia II	10	+3	15
10	Westfalia Kinderhaus	10	−1	15
11	Verl II	10	+2	14
12	Preußen Münster II	10	+1	12
13	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	10	−5	12
14	TuS Hordel	10	−4	10
15	Hiltrup	10	−11	10
16	Victoria Clarholz	10	−2	8
17	Ennepetal	10	−14	5
18	Schermbeck	10	−16	2