Erkenschwick v ASC Dortmund prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Erkenschwick 0–1 ASC Dortmund ASC DORTMUND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ASC Dortmund win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.348

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASC Dortmund are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erkenschwick 26%, draw 22%, ASC Dortmund 52%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Erkenschwick v ASC DortmundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Erkenschwick win26%

Draw22%

ASC Dortmund win52%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundWestfalen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erkenschwick

ASC Dortmund

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

Last match: 14 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Erkenschwick	10	+5	18
8	ASC Dortmund	10	+5	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asc dortmund winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make ASC Dortmund a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Erkenschwick v ASC Dortmund~~1.39 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 16~~5 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erkenschwick win	26%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
ASC Dortmund win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Erkenschwick or draw	48%	–	–
Erkenschwick clean sheet	14%	–	–
ASC Dortmund clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.7 6.7 6.8 4.6 2.4 1 4.6 9.4 9.1 6.1 3.1 2 3.3 6.3 6.2 4.2 2.2 3 3.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erkenschwick down, ASC Dortmund across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,687 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Erkenschwick at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). ASC Dortmund away: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Erkenschwick, 2.02 for ASC Dortmund. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ERK 2–3 ASC · ASC 2–4 ERK · ERK 0–5 ASC · ASC 2–2 ERK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 6 Sept

ERKENSCHWICK

WDWLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–2

ASC DORTMUND

WWDWLW2–0 · 4–1 · 3–3 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	11	+8	23
2	Vreden	11	+7	23
3	Eintracht Rheine	11	+7	20
4	Maaslingen	10	+5	19
5	Erkenschwick	10	+5	18
6	Sprockhovel	10	+9	17
7	Lippstadt 08	11	+1	17
8	ASC Dortmund	10	+5	16
9	Arminia II	10	+3	15
10	Westfalia Kinderhaus	10	−1	15
11	Verl II	10	+2	14
12	Preußen Münster II	10	+1	12
13	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	10	−5	12
14	TuS Hordel	10	−4	10
15	Hiltrup	10	−11	10
16	Victoria Clarholz	10	−2	8
17	Ennepetal	10	−14	5
18	Schermbeck	10	−16	2