Ennepetal v SpVgg Herne Horsthausen prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Ennepetal 3–1 SpVgg Herne Horsthausen SPVGG HERNE HORSTHAUSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.666

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ennepetal 35%, draw 21%, SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 44%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Ennepetal v SpVgg Herne HorsthausenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ennepetal win35%

Draw21%

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundWestfalen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ennepetal

SpVgg Herne Horsthausen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Westfalen

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	10	−5	12
17	Ennepetal	10	−14	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spvgg herne horsthausen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make SpVgg Herne Horsthausen a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ennepetal v SpVgg Herne Horsthausen~~1.75 – 2.00

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~17 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ennepetal win	35%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Ennepetal or draw	56%	–	–
Ennepetal clean sheet	14%	–	–
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.7 4.7 4.8 3.2 1 4.1 8.3 7.9 5.3 2.7 2 3.7 7.0 6.8 4.5 2.3 3 2.2 4.2 4.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ennepetal down, SpVgg Herne Horsthausen across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,687 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ennepetal at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). SpVgg Herne Horsthausen away: 1.40 scored, 2.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Ennepetal, 2.00 for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen this season · since 6 Sept

ENNEPETAL

LDDLLL1–6 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 1–2

SPVGG HERNE HORSTHAUSEN

LWLWLW0–2 · 4–3 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 3–5 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	11	+8	23
2	Vreden	11	+7	23
3	Eintracht Rheine	11	+7	20
4	Maaslingen	10	+5	19
5	Erkenschwick	10	+5	18
6	Sprockhovel	10	+9	17
7	Lippstadt 08	11	+1	17
8	ASC Dortmund	10	+5	16
9	Arminia II	10	+3	15
10	Westfalia Kinderhaus	10	−1	15
11	Verl II	10	+2	14
12	Preußen Münster II	10	+1	12
13	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	10	−5	12
14	TuS Hordel	10	−4	10
15	Hiltrup	10	−11	10
16	Victoria Clarholz	10	−2	8
17	Ennepetal	10	−14	5
18	Schermbeck	10	−16	2