ASC Dortmund v Schermbeck prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 21:30

ASC Dortmund 1–0 Schermbeck ASC DORTMUND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ASC Dortmund win~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.132

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on ASC Dortmund v SchermbeckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:21 · locked at kick-off

ASC Dortmund win70%

Draw16%

Schermbeck win14%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ASC Dortmund

Schermbeck

4Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	ASC Dortmund	9	4	13
18	Schermbeck	9	-15	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asc dortmund winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 18:21 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make ASC Dortmund a 70% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ASC Dortmund v Schermbeck~~2.85 – 1.20

~~Last six in Oberliga - Westfalen~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 2~~11 v 18

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · asc dortmund win

Published at 72%, 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASC Dortmund win	70%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Schermbeck win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
ASC Dortmund or draw	86%	–	–
ASC Dortmund clean sheet	31%	–	–
Schermbeck clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.1 2.2 1 5.1 6.2 3.7 2 7.0 8.3 5.0 2.0 3 6.5 7.6 4.5 4 4.6 5.4 3.2 5 2.7 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+ASC Dortmund down, Schermbeck across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,684 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.4% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASC Dortmund at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Schermbeck away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.85 goals for ASC Dortmund, 1.20 for Schermbeck. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ASC 2–0 SCH · SCH 0–3 ASC · ASC 2–3 SCH · SCH 5–1 ASC

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen

ASC DORTMUND

LWWDWL1–3 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 3–3 · 5–1 · 1–2

SCHERMBECK

LDLLLD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	10	8	22
2	Vreden	10	7	22
3	Eintracht Rheine	10	7	19
4	Maaslingen	10	5	19
5	Erkenschwick	10	5	18
6	Sprockhovel	10	9	17
7	Lippstadt 08	10	1	16
8	Arminia II	10	3	15
9	Westfalia Kinderhaus	10	-1	15
10	Verl II	10	2	14
11	ASC Dortmund	9	4	13
12	Preußen Münster II	10	1	12
13	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	10	-5	12
14	TuS Hordel	10	-4	10
15	Hiltrup	10	-11	10
16	Victoria Clarholz	10	-2	8
17	Ennepetal	10	-14	5
18	Schermbeck	9	-15	2