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ASC Dortmund v Gievenbeck

ASC Dortmund

1–2Full time

Gievenbeck

Oberliga - Westfalen · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

ASC Dortmund 1–2 Gievenbeck ASC DORTMUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ASC Dortmund win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.966

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

ASC Dortmund win58%

Draw20%

Gievenbeck win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asc dortmund winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

58% The market–

Us58%

We make ASC Dortmund a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASC Dortmund win	58%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Gievenbeck win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
ASC Dortmund or draw	77%	–	–
ASC Dortmund clean sheet	25%	–	–
Gievenbeck clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.8 3.2 2.4 1 5.3 7.9 5.4 2.6 2 6.3 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 4.9 6.7 4.7 2.3 4 2.9 4.0 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASC Dortmund down, Gievenbeck across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,675 Oberliga - Westfalen matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Westfalen matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASC Dortmund at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gievenbeck away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for ASC Dortmund, 1.43 for Gievenbeck. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GIE 1–1 ASC · ASC 1–0 GIE · GIE 2–3 ASC · ASC 3–2 GIE

Form · last six in Oberliga - Westfalen

ASC DORTMUND

WLWWDW4–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 3–3 · 5–1

GIEVENBECK

WWWWLW4–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 0–6 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	9	+7	19
2	Vreden	9	+6	19
3	Eintracht Rheine	9	+7	18
4	Erkenschwick	9	+6	18
5	Maaslingen	9	+4	16
6	Lippstadt 08	9	+2	16
7	Sprockhovel	9	+8	14
8	Verl II	9	+3	14
9	ASC Dortmund	8	+5	13
10	Arminia II	9	+2	12
11	Preußen Münster II	9	+2	12
12	Westfalia Kinderhaus	9	−2	12
13	TuS Hordel	9	−3	10
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	9	−6	9
15	Victoria Clarholz	9	−1	8
16	Hiltrup	9	−12	7
17	Ennepetal	9	−13	5
18	Schermbeck	8	−15	1