VfR Neumünster v Hohenwestedt prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

VfR Neumünster 3–2 Hohenwestedt VFR NEUMÜNSTER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfR Neumünster win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.192

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfR Neumünster are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfR Neumünster 64%, draw 18%, Hohenwestedt 18%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on VfR Neumünster v HohenwestedtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

VfR Neumünster win64%

Draw18%

Hohenwestedt win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfR Neumünster

Hohenwestedt

15Days since last match8

Last match: 3 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	VfR Neumünster	11	+15	24
13	Hohenwestedt	12	−9	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfr neumünster winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make VfR Neumünster a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfR Neumünster v Hohenwestedt~~2.61 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 10~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfR Neumünster win	64%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Hohenwestedt win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
VfR Neumünster or draw	82%	–	–
VfR Neumünster clean sheet	27%	–	–
Hohenwestedt clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.4 2.5 1 5.0 7.1 4.5 2.0 2 6.7 8.6 5.7 2.5 3 5.7 7.3 4.8 2.2 4 3.8 4.8 3.1 5 2.1 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+VfR Neumünster down, Hohenwestedt across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,217 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.8% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfR Neumünster at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hohenwestedt away: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.61 goals for VfR Neumünster, 1.32 for Hohenwestedt. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HOH 0–3 VFR · VFR 3–1 HOH · VFR 1–1 HOH · HOH 3–2 VFR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 30 Aug

VFR NEUMÜNSTER

WLWDDW3–0 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 3–1

HOHENWESTEDT

LDLLLW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	12	+26	29
2	VfR Neumünster	11	+15	24
3	Kilia Kiel	12	+13	24
4	TSB Flensburg	13	+18	23
5	Rotenhof	12	+6	22
6	Heider SV	13	−6	20
7	Union Neumünster	13	+6	19
8	Rapid Lubeck	13	−8	19
9	Oldenburger SV	12	+6	18
10	SV Eichede	12	+4	14
11	Phönix L. II	13	−4	14
12	Nordmark Satrup	12	−13	11
13	Hohenwestedt	12	−9	10
14	Lübeck II	12	−15	10
15	Eckernförder SV	13	−19	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	13	−20	8