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Union Neumünster v Nordmark Satrup

Union Neumünster

4–1Full time

Nordmark Satrup

Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Union Neumünster 4–1 Nordmark Satrup UNION NEUMÜNSTER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Neumünster win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.292

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Union Neumünster win56%

Draw20%

Nordmark Satrup win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union neumünster winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Union Neumünster a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Neumünster win	56%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Nordmark Satrup win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Union Neumünster or draw	76%	–	–
Union Neumünster clean sheet	24%	–	–
Nordmark Satrup clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 2.9 3.3 2.6 1 5.3 8.2 5.7 2.7 2 6.3 8.8 6.3 3.1 3 4.8 6.7 4.8 2.3 4 2.8 3.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Neumünster down, Nordmark Satrup across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,206 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Neumünster at home: 2.50 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nordmark Satrup away: 1.17 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for Union Neumünster, 1.44 for Nordmark Satrup. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–5 NOR · NOR 1–5 UNI · UNI 1–0 NOR · NOR 0–2 UNI

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

UNION NEUMÜNSTER

LDLDWL1–4 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 4–2 · 1–2

NORDMARK SATRUP

LDLDLL1–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	11	+25	26
2	VfR Neumünster	11	+15	24
3	Kilia Kiel	11	+11	21
4	TSB Flensburg	11	+17	20
5	Rotenhof	11	+3	19
6	Rapid Lubeck	11	+1	19
7	Oldenburger SV	11	+6	17
8	Heider SV	11	−12	14
9	SV Eichede	11	+4	13
10	Phönix L. II	11	−2	13
11	Union Neumünster	11	−3	13
12	Nordmark Satrup	11	−10	11
13	Lübeck II	11	−13	10
14	Eckernförder SV	11	−15	9
15	Kaltenkirchen	11	−17	8
16	Hohenwestedt	11	−10	7