Union Neumünster v Holstein Kiel II prediction · Oberliga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Holstein Kiel II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Neumünster 21%, draw 18%, Holstein Kiel II 61%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Union Neumünster v Holstein Kiel IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Union Neumünster win21%

Draw18%

Holstein Kiel II win61%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Neumünster

Holstein Kiel II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holstein kiel ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · postponed, not graded

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Holstein Kiel II a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Neumünster v Holstein Kiel II~~1.55 – 2.71

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 32~~7 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Holstein Kiel II win

Published at 60%, 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Neumünster win	21%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Holstein Kiel II win	61%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Union Neumünster or draw	39%	–	–
Union Neumünster clean sheet	7%	–	–
Holstein Kiel II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.9%

0123450 3.8 5.2 4.7 3.2 1 2.1 6.2 7.9 7.0 4.7 2.62 4.6 6.0 5.3 3.6 2.03 2.4 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Neumünster down, Holstein Kiel II across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,221 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.6% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Neumünster at home: 2.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Holstein Kiel II away: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Union Neumünster, 2.71 for Holstein Kiel II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–0 HOL · HOL 6–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 12 Sept

UNION NEUMÜNSTER

LDWLWW2–4 · 3–3 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 7–1

HOLSTEIN KIEL II

WWDWWW4–3 · 7–0 · 3–3 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	13	+31	32
2	VfR Neumünster	12	+16	27
3	Kilia Kiel	13	+15	27
4	TSB Flensburg	13	+18	23
5	Rotenhof	13	+1	22
6	Heider SV	13	−6	20
7	Union Neumünster	13	+6	19
8	Rapid Lubeck	13	−8	19
9	Oldenburger SV	12	+6	18
10	SV Eichede	13	+9	17
11	Phönix L. II	13	−4	14
12	Nordmark Satrup	13	−15	11
13	Hohenwestedt	13	−10	10
14	Eckernförder SV	13	−19	10
15	Lübeck II	13	−20	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	13	−20	8