TSB Flensburg v VfR Neumünster prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TSB FlensburgDrawVfR Neumünster

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · TSB Flensburg 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TSB Flensburg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TSB Flensburg 44%, draw 21%, VfR Neumünster 35%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on TSB Flensburg v VfR NeumünsterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

TSB Flensburg win44%

Draw21%

VfR Neumünster win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TSB Flensburg

VfR Neumünster

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	VfR Neumünster	12	+16	27
4	TSB Flensburg	13	+18	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tsb flensburg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make TSB Flensburg a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · TSB Flensburg v VfR Neumünster~~2.04 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 27~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TSB Flensburg win	44%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
VfR Neumünster win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
TSB Flensburg or draw	65%	–	–
TSB Flensburg clean sheet	17%	–	–
VfR Neumünster clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.6 3.7 3.5 2.1 1 4.2 8.2 7.0 4.2 2 4.5 7.8 7.0 4.2 3 3.1 5.3 4.7 2.8 4 2.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TSB Flensburg down, VfR Neumünster across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,226 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.5% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

TSB Flensburg at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). VfR Neumünster away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for TSB Flensburg, 1.81 for VfR Neumünster. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VFR 3–3 TSB · TSB 3–0 VFR · VFR 1–0 TSB · TSB 1–0 VFR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 5 Sept

TSB FLENSBURG

LWWWLW2–4 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

VFR NEUMÜNSTER

LWDDWW1–4 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	13	+31	32
2	Kilia Kiel	14	+25	30
3	VfR Neumünster	12	+16	27
4	TSB Flensburg	13	+18	23
5	Rotenhof	14	+1	23
6	Heider SV	14	−4	23
7	Union Neumünster	13	+6	19
8	Rapid Lubeck	14	−18	19
9	Oldenburger SV	13	+5	18
10	SV Eichede	13	+9	17
11	Phönix L. II	14	−4	15
12	Hohenwestedt	14	−9	13
13	Nordmark Satrup	13	−15	11
14	Eckernförder SV	14	−19	11
15	Lübeck II	14	−22	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	14	−20	9