TSB Flensburg v Holstein Kiel II prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

TSB Flensburg 0–1 Holstein Kiel II HOLSTEIN KIEL II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Holstein Kiel II win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.253

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

TSB Flensburg win22%

Draw19%

Holstein Kiel II win59%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

TSB Flensburg

Holstein Kiel II

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	11	+25	26
5	TSB Flensburg	11	+17	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holstein kiel ii winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Holstein Kiel II a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.5, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TSB Flensburg win	22%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Holstein Kiel II win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
TSB Flensburg or draw	41%	–	–
TSB Flensburg clean sheet	9%	–	–
Holstein Kiel II clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 2.3 4.4 5.7 4.8 3.0 1 2.6 7.1 8.3 6.9 4.4 2.32 2.1 5.1 6.2 5.1 3.2 3 2.6 3.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+TSB Flensburg down, Holstein Kiel II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,211 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.7% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

TSB Flensburg at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Holstein Kiel II away: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for TSB Flensburg, 2.51 for Holstein Kiel II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

TSB FLENSBURG

LDLWWW1–2 · 4–4 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 5–0

HOLSTEIN KIEL II

WWWWDW3–1 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 7–0 · 3–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	11	+25	26
2	VfR Neumünster	11	+15	24
3	Kilia Kiel	12	+13	24
4	Rotenhof	12	+6	22
5	TSB Flensburg	11	+17	20
6	Rapid Lubeck	12	−2	19
7	Oldenburger SV	11	+6	17
8	Heider SV	12	−10	17
9	Union Neumünster	12	0	16
10	SV Eichede	11	+4	13
11	Phönix L. II	12	−4	13
12	Nordmark Satrup	12	−13	11
13	Hohenwestedt	12	−9	10
14	Lübeck II	12	−15	10
15	Eckernförder SV	11	−15	9
16	Kaltenkirchen	12	−18	8