Oldenburger SV v Phönix L. II prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Oldenburger SV 2–2 Phönix L. II OLDENBURGER SV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Oldenburger SV win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.029

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oldenburger SV are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oldenburger SV 45%, draw 17%, Phönix L. II 38%. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 87%.

The AI’s read on Oldenburger SV v Phönix L. IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Oldenburger SV win45%

Draw17%

Phönix L. II win38%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oldenburger SV

Phönix L. II

12Days since last match6

Last match: 4 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Oldenburger SV	11	+6	17
11	Phönix L. II	12	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oldenburger sv winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Oldenburger SV a 45% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–2.7, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oldenburger SV v Phönix L. II~~2.89 – 2.67

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 13~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oldenburger SV win

Published at 43%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oldenburger SV win	45%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Phönix L. II win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	91%	–	–
Both teams to score	87%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	79%	–	–
Oldenburger SV or draw	62%	–	–
Oldenburger SV clean sheet	7%	–	–
Phönix L. II clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 5.6%

0123450 1 3.3 4.1 3.6 2.4 2 4.3 5.6 4.9 3.3 3 4.0 5.2 4.6 3.1 4 2.9 3.7 3.3 2.2 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Oldenburger SV down, Phönix L. II across0–5 goals a side shown (86.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,213 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.0% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oldenburger SV at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Phönix L. II away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.89 goals for Oldenburger SV, 2.67 for Phönix L. II. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OLD 4–4 PHO · PHO 2–2 OLD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 29 Aug

OLDENBURGER SV

WLLDWW5–0 · 0–3 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 4–0

PHÖNIX L. II

DLDDLL4–4 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	12	+26	29
2	VfR Neumünster	11	+15	24
3	Kilia Kiel	12	+13	24
4	Rotenhof	12	+6	22
5	TSB Flensburg	12	+16	20
6	Rapid Lubeck	12	−2	19
7	Oldenburger SV	11	+6	17
8	Heider SV	12	−10	17
9	Union Neumünster	12	0	16
10	SV Eichede	12	+4	14
11	Phönix L. II	12	−4	13
12	Nordmark Satrup	12	−13	11
13	Hohenwestedt	12	−9	10
14	Eckernförder SV	12	−15	10
15	Lübeck II	12	−15	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	12	−18	8