Nordmark Satrup v Heider SV prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nordmark SatrupDrawHeider SV

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Heider SV 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heider SV are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nordmark Satrup 32%, draw 22%, Heider SV 47%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Nordmark Satrup v Heider SVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Nordmark Satrup win32%

Draw22%

Heider SV win47%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nordmark Satrup

Heider SV

11Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 24 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Heider SV	14	−4	23
13	Nordmark Satrup	13	−15	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heider sv winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Heider SV a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nordmark Satrup v Heider SV~~1.66 – 2.04

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 23~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nordmark Satrup win	32%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Heider SV win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Nordmark Satrup or draw	53%	–	–
Nordmark Satrup clean sheet	13%	–	–
Heider SV clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.0 4.8 5.2 3.5 1 3.9 8.6 8.3 5.7 2.9 2 3.5 6.8 6.8 4.7 2.4 3 3.8 3.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nordmark Satrup down, Heider SV across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,226 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.5% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nordmark Satrup at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Heider SV away: 2.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Nordmark Satrup, 2.04 for Heider SV. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NOR 1–1 HEI · HEI 0–2 NOR · HEI 3–1 NOR · NOR 1–2 HEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 13 Sept

NORDMARK SATRUP

LDLLLL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–4

HEIDER SV

WLLWWW4–1 · 1–5 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 6–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	13	+31	32
2	Kilia Kiel	14	+25	30
3	VfR Neumünster	12	+16	27
4	TSB Flensburg	13	+18	23
5	Rotenhof	14	+1	23
6	Heider SV	14	−4	23
7	Union Neumünster	13	+6	19
8	Rapid Lubeck	14	−18	19
9	Oldenburger SV	13	+5	18
10	SV Eichede	13	+9	17
11	Phönix L. II	14	−4	15
12	Hohenwestedt	14	−9	13
13	Nordmark Satrup	13	−15	11
14	Eckernförder SV	14	−19	11
15	Lübeck II	14	−22	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	14	−20	9