Kilia Kiel v Rapid Lubeck prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Kilia Kiel 12–2 Rapid Lubeck KILIA KIEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kilia Kiel win~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.057

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kilia Kiel are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kilia Kiel 80%, draw 10%, Rapid Lubeck 9%. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Kilia Kiel v Rapid LubeckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kilia Kiel win80%

Draw10%

Rapid Lubeck win9%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kilia Kiel

Rapid Lubeck

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kilia Kiel	13	+15	27
8	Rapid Lubeck	13	−8	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kilia kiel winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make Kilia Kiel an 80% chance to win. The model expects 4.0–1.4, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kilia Kiel v Rapid Lubeck~~4.00 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 19~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kilia Kiel win	80%	–	–
Draw	10%	–	–
Rapid Lubeck win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	90%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	78%	–	–
Kilia Kiel or draw	91%	–	–
Kilia Kiel clean sheet	25%	–	–
Rapid Lubeck clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.5%

0123450 1 2.9 2 3.7 5.1 3.6 3 4.7 6.5 4.6 2.2 4 4.6 6.3 4.4 2.1 5 3.6 5.0 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kilia Kiel down, Rapid Lubeck across0–5 goals a side shown (77.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,221 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.6% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kilia Kiel at home: 3.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rapid Lubeck away: 2.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.00 goals for Kilia Kiel, 1.43 for Rapid Lubeck. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 12 Sept

KILIA KIEL

WLDWWW2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 6–1 · 4–2 · 4–2

RAPID LUBECK

WDWLLL6–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–5 · 2–5 · 1–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	13	+31	32
2	VfR Neumünster	12	+16	27
3	Kilia Kiel	13	+15	27
4	TSB Flensburg	13	+18	23
5	Rotenhof	13	+1	22
6	Heider SV	13	−6	20
7	Union Neumünster	13	+6	19
8	Rapid Lubeck	13	−8	19
9	Oldenburger SV	12	+6	18
10	SV Eichede	13	+9	17
11	Phönix L. II	13	−4	14
12	Nordmark Satrup	13	−15	11
13	Hohenwestedt	13	−10	10
14	Eckernförder SV	13	−19	10
15	Lübeck II	13	−20	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	13	−20	8