Kilia Kiel v Nordmark Satrup prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 21:01

Kilia Kiel 4–2 Nordmark Satrup KILIA KIEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kilia Kiel win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.098

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kilia Kiel are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kilia Kiel 75%, draw 14%, Nordmark Satrup 11%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Kilia Kiel v Nordmark SatrupBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kilia Kiel win75%

Draw14%

Nordmark Satrup win11%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 18:30

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kilia Kiel

Nordmark Satrup

10Days since last match10

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kilia Kiel	12	+13	24
12	Nordmark Satrup	12	−13	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kilia kiel winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 19 Oct 13:38 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Kilia Kiel a 75% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kilia Kiel v Nordmark Satrup~~2.99 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 11~~3 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kilia Kiel win

Published at 16%, 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kilia Kiel win	75%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Nordmark Satrup win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Kilia Kiel or draw	89%	–	–
Kilia Kiel clean sheet	34%	–	–
Nordmark Satrup clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.0 1 5.0 5.8 3.1 2 7.5 8.1 4.5 3 7.3 7.9 4.4 4 5.5 5.9 3.2 5 3.3 3.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Kilia Kiel down, Nordmark Satrup across0–5 goals a side shown (91.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,220 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.4% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 5.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kilia Kiel at home: 2.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nordmark Satrup away: 1.17 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.99 goals for Kilia Kiel, 1.10 for Nordmark Satrup. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~5.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NOR 5–0 KIL · KIL 3–0 NOR · KIL 6–2 NOR · NOR 2–3 KIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 5 Sept

KILIA KIEL

WWLDWW3–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 6–1 · 4–2

NORDMARK SATRUP

DLDLLL1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	13	+31	32
2	VfR Neumünster	12	+16	27
3	Kilia Kiel	12	+13	24
4	TSB Flensburg	13	+18	23
5	Rotenhof	13	+1	22
6	Heider SV	13	−6	20
7	Union Neumünster	13	+6	19
8	Rapid Lubeck	13	−8	19
9	Oldenburger SV	12	+6	18
10	SV Eichede	13	+9	17
11	Phönix L. II	13	−4	14
12	Nordmark Satrup	12	−13	11
13	Hohenwestedt	13	−10	10
14	Eckernförder SV	13	−19	10
15	Lübeck II	13	−20	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	13	−20	8