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Kilia Kiel v Lübeck II

Kilia Kiel

4–2Full time

Lübeck II

Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Kilia Kiel 4–2 Lübeck II KILIA KIEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kilia Kiel win~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.064

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kilia Kiel win79%

Draw12%

Lübeck II win9%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kilia kiel winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

79% The market–

Us79%

We make Kilia Kiel a 79% chance to win. The model expects 3.5–1.2, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kilia Kiel win	79%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Lübeck II win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	84%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	68%	–	–
Kilia Kiel or draw	91%	–	–
Kilia Kiel clean sheet	31%	–	–
Lübeck II clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.5%

0123450 1 3.2 4.1 2.3 2 5.7 6.6 3.9 3 6.5 7.5 4.5 4 5.6 6.5 3.9 5 4.0 4.6 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Kilia Kiel down, Lübeck II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,206 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 5.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kilia Kiel at home: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lübeck II away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.51 goals for Kilia Kiel, 1.19 for Lübeck II. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~5.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LUB 1–1 KIL · KIL 4–2 LUB · KIL 8–0 LUB · LUB 1–6 KIL

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

KILIA KIEL

WWWLDW4–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 6–1

LÜBECK II

DWWLLW2–2 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	11	+25	26
2	VfR Neumünster	11	+15	24
3	Kilia Kiel	11	+11	21
4	TSB Flensburg	11	+17	20
5	Rotenhof	11	+3	19
6	Rapid Lubeck	11	+1	19
7	Oldenburger SV	11	+6	17
8	Heider SV	11	−12	14
9	SV Eichede	11	+4	13
10	Phönix L. II	11	−2	13
11	Union Neumünster	11	−3	13
12	Nordmark Satrup	11	−10	11
13	Lübeck II	11	−13	10
14	Eckernförder SV	11	−15	9
15	Kaltenkirchen	11	−17	8
16	Hohenwestedt	11	−10	7