Kaltenkirchen v TSB Flensburg prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Kaltenkirchen 1–3 TSB Flensburg TSB FLENSBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TSB Flensburg win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.345

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TSB Flensburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kaltenkirchen 27%, draw 21%, TSB Flensburg 52%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Kaltenkirchen v TSB FlensburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kaltenkirchen win27%

Draw21%

TSB Flensburg win52%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kaltenkirchen

TSB Flensburg

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	TSB Flensburg	12	+16	20
16	Kaltenkirchen	12	−18	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tsb flensburg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make TSB Flensburg a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kaltenkirchen v TSB Flensburg~~1.56 – 2.23

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 20~~16 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaltenkirchen win	27%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
TSB Flensburg win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Kaltenkirchen or draw	48%	–	–
Kaltenkirchen clean sheet	11%	–	–
TSB Flensburg clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 2.8 4.9 5.6 4.1 2.4 1 3.4 8.1 8.5 6.2 3.5 2 2.9 6.1 6.6 4.8 2.7 3 3.2 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaltenkirchen down, TSB Flensburg across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,214 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.2% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Kaltenkirchen at home: 1.33 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). TSB Flensburg away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Kaltenkirchen, 2.23 for TSB Flensburg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 5 Sept

KALTENKIRCHEN

DLLLLL1–1 · 2–6 · 0–7 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 2–3

TSB FLENSBURG

DLWWWL4–4 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 5–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	12	+26	29
2	VfR Neumünster	11	+15	24
3	Kilia Kiel	12	+13	24
4	Rotenhof	12	+6	22
5	TSB Flensburg	12	+16	20
6	Rapid Lubeck	12	−2	19
7	Oldenburger SV	12	+6	18
8	Heider SV	12	−10	17
9	Union Neumünster	12	0	16
10	SV Eichede	12	+4	14
11	Phönix L. II	13	−4	14
12	Nordmark Satrup	12	−13	11
13	Hohenwestedt	12	−9	10
14	Eckernförder SV	12	−15	10
15	Lübeck II	12	−15	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	12	−18	8