Heider SV v Lübeck II prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Heider SV 3–1 Lübeck II HEIDER SV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heider SV win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.209

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heider SV are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Heider SV 63%, draw 17%, Lübeck II 20%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Heider SV v Lübeck IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Heider SV win63%

Draw17%

Lübeck II win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heider SV

Lübeck II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Heider SV	13	−6	20
15	Lübeck II	13	−20	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heider sv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Heider SV a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heider SV v Lübeck II~~2.85 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 10~~6 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Heider SV win

Published at 60%, 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heider SV win	63%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Lübeck II win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Heider SV or draw	80%	–	–
Heider SV clean sheet	21%	–	–
Lübeck II clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 1 3.3 5.6 4.3 2.3 2 4.8 7.4 5.9 3.2 3 4.5 6.9 5.5 3.0 4 3.2 4.9 3.9 2.1 5 2.9 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Heider SV down, Lübeck II across0–5 goals a side shown (91.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,221 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.6% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heider SV at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lübeck II away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.85 goals for Heider SV, 1.60 for Lübeck II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LUB 1–3 HEI · HEI 7–0 LUB · LUB 2–3 HEI · HEI 0–3 LUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 12 Sept

HEIDER SV

WWLLWW4–2 · 4–1 · 1–5 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 6–2

LÜBECK II

WLLWLL2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	13	+31	32
2	VfR Neumünster	12	+16	27
3	Kilia Kiel	13	+15	27
4	TSB Flensburg	13	+18	23
5	Rotenhof	13	+1	22
6	Heider SV	13	−6	20
7	Union Neumünster	13	+6	19
8	Rapid Lubeck	13	−8	19
9	Oldenburger SV	12	+6	18
10	SV Eichede	13	+9	17
11	Phönix L. II	13	−4	14
12	Nordmark Satrup	13	−15	11
13	Hohenwestedt	13	−10	10
14	Eckernförder SV	13	−19	10
15	Lübeck II	13	−20	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	13	−20	8