Eckernförder SV v Heider SV prediction · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Eckernförder SV 2–6 Heider SV HEIDER SV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heider SV win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.361

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heider SV are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eckernförder SV 30%, draw 19%, Heider SV 51%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Eckernförder SV v Heider SVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Eckernförder SV win30%

Draw19%

Heider SV win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundSchleswig-Holstein · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eckernförder SV

Heider SV

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Heider SV	12	−10	17
14	Eckernförder SV	12	−15	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heider sv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Heider SV a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–2.5, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eckernförder SV v Heider SV~~1.88 – 2.50

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 17~~14 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Heider SV win

Published at 53%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eckernförder SV win	30%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Heider SV win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Eckernförder SV or draw	49%	–	–
Eckernförder SV clean sheet	9%	–	–
Heider SV clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.2%

0123450 3.1 4.0 3.3 2.1 1 2.3 6.2 7.2 5.9 3.7 2 2.3 5.5 6.7 5.5 3.4 3 3.5 4.2 3.4 2.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eckernförder SV down, Heider SV across0–5 goals a side shown (93.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,214 Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.2% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eckernförder SV at home: 1.67 scored, 3.67 conceded a game (last 6). Heider SV away: 1.50 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Eckernförder SV, 2.50 for Heider SV. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ECK 0–5 HEI · HEI 2–1 ECK · HEI 6–0 ECK · ECK 0–2 HEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein this season · since 5 Sept

ECKERNFÖRDER SV

WLLWLD4–2 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 1–6 · 1–1

HEIDER SV

DWWLLW1–1 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 1–5 · 0–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	12	+26	29
2	VfR Neumünster	11	+15	24
3	Kilia Kiel	12	+13	24
4	Rotenhof	12	+6	22
5	TSB Flensburg	12	+16	20
6	Rapid Lubeck	12	−2	19
7	Oldenburger SV	12	+6	18
8	Heider SV	12	−10	17
9	Union Neumünster	12	0	16
10	SV Eichede	12	+4	14
11	Phönix L. II	13	−4	14
12	Nordmark Satrup	12	−13	11
13	Hohenwestedt	12	−9	10
14	Eckernförder SV	12	−15	10
15	Lübeck II	12	−15	10
16	Kaltenkirchen	12	−18	8