Schott Mainz v Wormatia Worms prediction · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Schott Mainz 3–1 Wormatia Worms SCHOTT MAINZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Schott Mainz win~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.133

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Schott Mainz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schott Mainz 70%, draw 16%, Wormatia Worms 13%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Schott Mainz v Wormatia WormsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Schott Mainz win70%

Draw16%

Wormatia Worms win13%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundRheinland-Pfalz/Saar · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schott Mainz

Wormatia Worms

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Schott Mainz	13	+15	26
7	Wormatia Worms	13	+13	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schott mainz winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Schott Mainz a 70% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schott Mainz v Wormatia Worms~~2.84 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 21~~2 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schott Mainz win	70%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Wormatia Worms win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Schott Mainz or draw	87%	–	–
Schott Mainz clean sheet	31%	–	–
Wormatia Worms clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.4 1 4.6 6.5 3.6 2 7.1 8.3 5.0 2.1 3 6.6 7.8 4.7 4 4.7 5.5 3.3 5 2.8 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Schott Mainz down, Wormatia Worms across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Schott Mainz at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wormatia Worms away: 2.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.84 goals for Schott Mainz, 1.20 for Wormatia Worms. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SCH 3–2 WOR · WOR 3–2 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 13 Sept

SCHOTT MAINZ

DLDDWW0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0

WORMATIA WORMS

WLWDDW3–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mechtersheim	13	+12	28
2	Schott Mainz	13	+15	26
3	Gonsenheim	13	+16	25
4	Pirmasens	13	+19	24
5	FV Engers 07	13	+9	22
6	TuS Koblenz	13	+5	22
7	Wormatia Worms	13	+13	21
8	RW Wittlich	12	+8	21
9	TuS RW Koblenz	13	+7	20
10	Gau-Odernheim	12	+5	20
11	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	13	−4	19
12	Elversberg II	14	−5	19
13	Hertha Wiesbach	13	−8	15
14	Auersmacher	14	−12	15
15	Cosmos Koblenz	13	−5	13
16	Ahrweiler	13	−14	7
17	Diefflen	13	−22	7
18	Eisbachtal	13	−39	1