Mechtersheim v Diefflen prediction · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Mechtersheim 2–1 Diefflen MECHTERSHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Mechtersheim win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.220

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mechtersheim are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mechtersheim 62%, draw 18%, Diefflen 20%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Mechtersheim v DiefflenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mechtersheim win62%

Draw18%

Diefflen win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundRheinland-Pfalz/Saar · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mechtersheim

Diefflen

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mechtersheim winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Mechtersheim a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mechtersheim v Diefflen~~2.69 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 8 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 7~~1 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mechtersheim win	62%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Diefflen win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Mechtersheim or draw	80%	–	–
Mechtersheim clean sheet	22%	–	–
Diefflen clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.1 1 3.7 6.6 4.6 2.3 2 5.4 8.0 6.0 3.1 3 4.8 7.1 5.3 2.7 4 3.2 4.8 3.6 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Mechtersheim down, Diefflen across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,583 Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.62 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mechtersheim at home: 3.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Diefflen away: 1.17 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Mechtersheim, 1.52 for Diefflen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.62

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MEC 1–1 DIE · DIE 2–2 MEC · MEC 2–0 DIE · DIE 2–1 MEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 8 Sept

MECHTERSHEIM

WWLWDW5–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

DIEFFLEN

LLLDDD0–4 · 0–7 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mechtersheim	12	+11	25
2	Schott Mainz	12	+13	23
3	Gonsenheim	12	+14	22
4	Pirmasens	12	+16	21
5	TuS Koblenz	12	+5	21
6	Gau-Odernheim	11	+10	20
7	TuS RW Koblenz	12	+9	20
8	FV Engers 07	12	+4	19
9	RW Wittlich	11	+7	18
10	Wormatia Worms	12	+6	18
11	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	12	−4	18
12	Hertha Wiesbach	12	−6	15
13	Auersmacher	12	−7	15
14	Cosmos Koblenz	12	−4	13
15	Elversberg II	12	−10	13
16	Ahrweiler	12	−11	7
17	Diefflen	12	−21	7
18	Eisbachtal	12	−32	1