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Mechtersheim v Ahrweiler

Mechtersheim

2–0Full time

Ahrweiler

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Mechtersheim 2–0 Ahrweiler MECHTERSHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mechtersheim win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.334

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mechtersheim win53%

Draw23%

Ahrweiler win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mechtersheim winPublished 9 Oct 21:03

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Mechtersheim a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mechtersheim win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ahrweiler win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Mechtersheim or draw	76%	–	–
Mechtersheim clean sheet	29%	–	–
Ahrweiler clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.2 4.5 3.3 1 7.4 10.6 6.1 2.6 2 7.8 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 5.1 6.1 3.8 4 2.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mechtersheim down, Ahrweiler across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,574 Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mechtersheim at home: 3.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ahrweiler away: 0.40 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Mechtersheim, 1.24 for Ahrweiler. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

MECHTERSHEIM

WWWLWD4–2 · 5–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–2

AHRWEILER

DDLWLD0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mechtersheim	11	+9	22
2	TuS Koblenz	11	+6	21
3	Schott Mainz	11	+12	20
4	Gau-Odernheim	10	+12	20
5	Gonsenheim	11	+13	19
6	Pirmasens	11	+11	18
7	FV Engers 07	11	+4	18
8	RW Wittlich	10	+7	17
9	Wormatia Worms	11	+6	17
10	TuS RW Koblenz	11	+5	17
11	Auersmacher	11	−3	15
12	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	11	−6	15
13	Cosmos Koblenz	11	−3	13
14	Elversberg II	11	−5	13
15	Hertha Wiesbach	11	−9	12
16	Ahrweiler	11	−9	7
17	Diefflen	11	−21	6
18	Eisbachtal	11	−29	1