Elversberg II v Auersmacher prediction · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Elversberg II 4–2 Auersmacher ELVERSBERG II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elversberg II win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elversberg II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elversberg II 43%, draw 23%, Auersmacher 34%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Elversberg II v AuersmacherBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Elversberg II win43%

Draw23%

Auersmacher win34%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundRheinland-Pfalz/Saar · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elversberg II

Auersmacher

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Elversberg II	13	−7	16
14	Auersmacher	13	−10	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elversberg ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Elversberg II a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elversberg II v Auersmacher~~1.88 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 15~~12 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elversberg II win	43%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Auersmacher win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Elversberg II or draw	66%	–	–
Elversberg II clean sheet	20%	–	–
Auersmacher clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 4.3 4.1 2.3 1 4.9 9.7 7.3 4.0 2 5.2 8.3 6.7 3.7 3 3.3 5.2 4.2 2.3 4 2.5 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elversberg II down, Auersmacher across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,592 Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.7% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elversberg II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Auersmacher away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Elversberg II, 1.65 for Auersmacher. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AUE 2–1 ELV · ELV 0–7 AUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 12 Sept

ELVERSBERG II

DWLDLW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–6 · 3–0

AUERSMACHER

LWLLLL1–5 · 5–4 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mechtersheim	13	+12	28
2	Schott Mainz	13	+15	26
3	Gonsenheim	13	+16	25
4	Pirmasens	13	+19	24
5	FV Engers 07	13	+9	22
6	TuS Koblenz	13	+5	22
7	Wormatia Worms	13	+13	21
8	RW Wittlich	12	+8	21
9	TuS RW Koblenz	13	+7	20
10	Gau-Odernheim	12	+5	20
11	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	13	−4	19
12	Elversberg II	13	−7	16
13	Hertha Wiesbach	13	−8	15
14	Auersmacher	13	−10	15
15	Cosmos Koblenz	13	−5	13
16	Ahrweiler	13	−14	7
17	Diefflen	13	−22	7
18	Eisbachtal	13	−39	1