Diefflen v Ahrweiler prediction · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Diefflen 1–1 Ahrweiler DIEFFLEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Diefflen win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.897

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Diefflen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Diefflen 47%, draw 23%, Ahrweiler 30%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Diefflen v AhrweilerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Diefflen win47%

Draw23%

Ahrweiler win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundRheinland-Pfalz/Saar · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Diefflen

Ahrweiler

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Ahrweiler	13	−14	7
17	Diefflen	13	−22	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · diefflen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Diefflen a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Diefflen v Ahrweiler~~1.94 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~17 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Diefflen win

Published at 44%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Diefflen win	47%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ahrweiler win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Diefflen or draw	70%	–	–
Diefflen clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ahrweiler clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.2 4.2 3.7 1 5.6 10.0 6.9 3.5 2 6.0 8.8 6.5 3.3 3 3.9 5.7 4.2 2.1 4 2.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Diefflen down, Ahrweiler across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Diefflen at home: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ahrweiler away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Diefflen, 1.51 for Ahrweiler. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 12 Sept

DIEFFLEN

LLDDDL0–7 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–2

AHRWEILER

LWLDLL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mechtersheim	13	+12	28
2	Schott Mainz	13	+15	26
3	Gonsenheim	13	+16	25
4	Pirmasens	13	+19	24
5	FV Engers 07	13	+9	22
6	TuS Koblenz	13	+5	22
7	Wormatia Worms	13	+13	21
8	RW Wittlich	12	+8	21
9	TuS RW Koblenz	13	+7	20
10	Gau-Odernheim	12	+5	20
11	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	13	−4	19
12	Elversberg II	14	−5	19
13	Hertha Wiesbach	13	−8	15
14	Auersmacher	14	−12	15
15	Cosmos Koblenz	13	−5	13
16	Ahrweiler	13	−14	7
17	Diefflen	13	−22	7
18	Eisbachtal	13	−39	1