Ahrweiler v Elversberg II prediction · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Ahrweiler 0–3 Elversberg II AHRWEILER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ahrweiler win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ahrweiler are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ahrweiler 50%, draw 25%, Elversberg II 25%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Ahrweiler v Elversberg IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ahrweiler win50%

Draw25%

Elversberg II win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundRheinland-Pfalz/Saar · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ahrweiler

Elversberg II

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Elversberg II	12	−10	13
16	Ahrweiler	12	−11	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ahrweiler winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Ahrweiler a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ahrweiler v Elversberg II~~1.79 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 9 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~16 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ahrweiler win	50%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Elversberg II win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Ahrweiler or draw	75%	–	–
Ahrweiler clean sheet	31%	–	–
Elversberg II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 5.3 3.7 1 8.3 11.4 6.3 2.6 2 8.1 9.3 5.5 2.3 3 4.9 5.5 3.3 4 2.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ahrweiler down, Elversberg II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.2% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ahrweiler at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Elversberg II away: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Ahrweiler, 1.19 for Elversberg II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar this season · since 9 Sept

AHRWEILER

DLWLDL2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

ELVERSBERG II

LDWLDL0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mechtersheim	13	+12	28
2	Schott Mainz	13	+15	26
3	Gonsenheim	13	+16	25
4	Pirmasens	13	+19	24
5	TuS Koblenz	13	+5	22
6	Wormatia Worms	13	+13	21
7	RW Wittlich	12	+8	21
8	Gau-Odernheim	11	+10	20
9	TuS RW Koblenz	13	+7	20
10	FV Engers 07	12	+4	19
11	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	13	−4	19
12	Hertha Wiesbach	13	−8	15
13	Auersmacher	13	−10	15
14	Cosmos Koblenz	13	−5	13
15	Elversberg II	12	−10	13
16	Ahrweiler	12	−11	7
17	Diefflen	13	−22	7
18	Eisbachtal	13	−39	1