Union Sandersdorf v Budissa Bautzen prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Union Sandersdorf 3–1 Budissa Bautzen UNION SANDERSDORF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Sandersdorf win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.500

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Sandersdorf are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Sandersdorf 42%, draw 25%, Budissa Bautzen 33%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Union Sandersdorf v Budissa BautzenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Union Sandersdorf win42%

Draw25%

Budissa Bautzen win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV- Sud · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Sandersdorf

Budissa Bautzen

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Budissa Bautzen	7	−3	9
12	Union Sandersdorf	7	+3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union sandersdorf winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Union Sandersdorf a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Sandersdorf v Budissa Bautzen~~1.67 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 14 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~12 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Sandersdorf win	42%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Budissa Bautzen win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Union Sandersdorf or draw	67%	–	–
Union Sandersdorf clean sheet	24%	–	–
Budissa Bautzen clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.3 5.9 4.7 2.3 1 6.9 11.2 7.6 3.7 2 6.2 8.7 6.3 3.0 3 3.5 4.9 3.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Sandersdorf down, Budissa Bautzen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,364 Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Sandersdorf at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Budissa Bautzen away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Union Sandersdorf, 1.45 for Budissa Bautzen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUD 3–1 UNI · UNI 0–0 BUD · BUD 1–0 UNI · UNI 3–1 BUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 14 Aug

UNION SANDERSDORF

LWLLLD0–1 · 8–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 3–3

BUDISSA BAUTZEN

DLDWDW0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Germania Halberstadt	7	+19	19
2	ZFC Meuselwitz	7	+11	19
3	Eilenburg	7	+15	16
4	Auerbach	7	+8	14
5	VfL Halle	7	+1	12
6	Weissenfels	8	−1	12
7	Dresden II	8	+4	11
8	SC Freital	8	+1	10
9	Plauen	7	+2	9
10	Budissa Bautzen	7	−3	9
11	Einheit Wernigerode	8	−6	8
12	Union Sandersdorf	7	+3	7
13	Krieschow	8	−13	5
14	Empor Glauchau	7	−7	3
15	Einheit Rudolstadt	8	−15	3
16	FC Frankfurt	7	−19	3