SC Freital v Weissenfels prediction · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

SC Freital 3–2 Weissenfels SC FREITAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Freital win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Freital are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Freital 52%, draw 23%, Weissenfels 24%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on SC Freital v WeissenfelsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SC Freital win52%

Draw23%

Weissenfels win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV- Sud · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Freital

Weissenfels

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Weissenfels	8	−1	12
10	SC Freital	8	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc freital winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make SC Freital a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Freital v Weissenfels~~1.94 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~10 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Freital win	52%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Weissenfels win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
SC Freital or draw	76%	–	–
SC Freital clean sheet	29%	–	–
Weissenfels clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.1 4.8 3.4 1 7.6 10.5 6.1 2.6 2 7.7 9.3 5.8 2.5 3 4.9 6.0 3.7 4 2.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Freital down, Weissenfels across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,370 Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.2% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

SC Freital at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Weissenfels away: 2.25 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for SC Freital, 1.25 for Weissenfels. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 29 Aug

SC FREITAL

LDDDDW1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 4–2

WEISSENFELS

LLWLLW2–3 · 0–4 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ZFC Meuselwitz	9	+13	23
2	Germania Halberstadt	8	+17	19
3	Auerbach	8	+10	17
4	Eilenburg	8	+13	16
5	VfL Halle	8	+3	15
6	Weissenfels	8	−1	12
7	Dresden II	8	+4	11
8	Union Sandersdorf	8	+5	10
9	Plauen	8	+2	10
10	SC Freital	8	+1	10
11	Budissa Bautzen	9	−7	9
12	Einheit Wernigerode	8	−6	8
13	Empor Glauchau	8	−5	6
14	Krieschow	8	−13	5
15	Einheit Rudolstadt	8	−15	3
16	FC Frankfurt	8	−21	3