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SC Freital v Empor Glauchau

SC Freital

1–1Full time

Empor Glauchau

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

SC Freital 1–1 Empor Glauchau SC FREITAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said SC Freital win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.952

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SC Freital win56%

Draw23%

Empor Glauchau win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc freital winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

56% The market–

Us56%

We make SC Freital a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Freital win	56%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Empor Glauchau win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
SC Freital or draw	79%	–	–
SC Freital clean sheet	33%	–	–
Empor Glauchau clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.3 4.7 3.0 1 8.4 10.5 5.6 2.2 2 8.7 9.6 5.4 2.1 3 5.7 6.2 3.5 4 2.8 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Freital down, Empor Glauchau across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,353 Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Freital at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Empor Glauchau away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for SC Freital, 1.13 for Empor Glauchau. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EMP 1–4 SCF · SCF 2–0 EMP

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

SC FREITAL

LWLDDD0–1 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–3

EMPOR GLAUCHAU

LLLDLD0–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Germania Halberstadt	6	+16	16
2	ZFC Meuselwitz	6	+8	16
3	Eilenburg	6	+9	13
4	VfL Halle	6	+4	12
5	Auerbach	6	+4	11
6	Dresden II	6	+5	10
7	Weissenfels	6	0	9
8	Plauen	6	+2	8
9	Einheit Wernigerode	6	0	7
10	Union Sandersdorf	6	+3	6
11	SC Freital	6	−1	6
12	Budissa Bautzen	6	−5	6
13	Krieschow	6	−11	4
14	FC Frankfurt	6	−16	3
15	Empor Glauchau	6	−7	2
16	Einheit Rudolstadt	6	−11	2