Krieschow v SC Freital prediction · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Krieschow 2–4 SC Freital KRIESCHOW WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Krieschow win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Krieschow just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Krieschow 39%, draw 25%, SC Freital 36%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Krieschow v SC FreitalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Krieschow win39%

Draw25%

SC Freital win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV- Sud · matchday 8

VenueSportpark Krieschow

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krieschow

SC Freital

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	SC Freital	7	−1	7
13	Krieschow	7	−11	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · krieschow winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:41 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Krieschow a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krieschow v SC Freital~~1.60 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Krieschow win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krieschow win	39%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
SC Freital win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Krieschow or draw	64%	–	–
Krieschow clean sheet	22%	–	–
SC Freital clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.2 6.1 5.2 2.7 1 6.4 11.1 8.0 4.1 2 5.6 8.3 6.4 3.3 3 3.0 4.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krieschow down, SC Freital across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,361 Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krieschow at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). SC Freital away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Krieschow, 1.54 for SC Freital. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SCF 2–1 KRI · KRI 2–2 SCF · SCF 1–0 KRI · KRI 1–1 SCF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 16 Aug

KRIESCHOW

LLLWDD0–1 · 0–5 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

SC FREITAL

WLDDDD4–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Germania Halberstadt	7	+19	19
2	ZFC Meuselwitz	7	+11	19
3	Eilenburg	7	+15	16
4	Auerbach	7	+8	14
5	VfL Halle	7	+1	12
6	Dresden II	7	+5	11
7	Plauen	7	+2	9
8	Weissenfels	7	−2	9
9	Budissa Bautzen	7	−3	9
10	Union Sandersdorf	7	+3	7
11	SC Freital	7	−1	7
12	Einheit Wernigerode	7	−6	7
13	Krieschow	7	−11	5
14	Empor Glauchau	7	−7	3
15	FC Frankfurt	7	−19	3
16	Einheit Rudolstadt	7	−15	2