Dresden II v Krieschow prediction · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 03:35

Dresden II 2–2 Krieschow DRESDEN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dresden II win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.871

Corrected on 14 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 1–0; the score is now 2–2 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Dresden II win47%

Draw25%

Krieschow win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dresden II

Krieschow

15Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Dresden II	6	+5	10
13	Krieschow	6	−11	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dresden ii winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Dresden II a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dresden II win	47%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Krieschow win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Dresden II or draw	72%	–	–
Dresden II clean sheet	29%	–	–
Krieschow clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.9 5.8 4.1 1 8.0 11.2 6.8 3.0 2 7.3 9.0 5.7 2.5 3 4.3 5.2 3.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dresden II down, Krieschow across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,357 Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.4% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dresden II at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Krieschow away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Dresden II, 1.28 for Krieschow. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

DRESDEN II

WDWDDD1–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

KRIESCHOW

LLLLWD1–3 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Germania Halberstadt	7	+19	19
2	Eilenburg	7	+15	16
3	ZFC Meuselwitz	6	+8	16
4	VfL Halle	6	+4	12
5	Auerbach	6	+4	11
6	Dresden II	6	+5	10
7	Plauen	7	+2	9
8	Weissenfels	6	0	9
9	Union Sandersdorf	7	+3	7
10	SC Freital	7	−1	7
11	Einheit Wernigerode	7	−6	7
12	Budissa Bautzen	6	−5	6
13	Krieschow	6	−11	4
14	Empor Glauchau	7	−7	3
15	FC Frankfurt	7	−19	3
16	Einheit Rudolstadt	6	−11	2