Budissa Bautzen v ZFC Meuselwitz prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Budissa Bautzen 1–3 ZFC Meuselwitz ZFC MEUSELWITZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ZFC Meuselwitz win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ZFC Meuselwitz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Budissa Bautzen 33%, draw 23%, ZFC Meuselwitz 44%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Budissa Bautzen v ZFC MeuselwitzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Budissa Bautzen win33%

Draw23%

ZFC Meuselwitz win44%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundNOFV- Sud · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Budissa Bautzen

ZFC Meuselwitz

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zfc meuselwitz winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make ZFC Meuselwitz a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Budissa Bautzen v ZFC Meuselwitz~~1.57 – 1.86

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 20~~11 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ZFC Meuselwitz win

Published at 43%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Budissa Bautzen win	33%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
ZFC Meuselwitz win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Budissa Bautzen or draw	56%	–	–
Budissa Bautzen clean sheet	16%	–	–
ZFC Meuselwitz clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.1 5.6 5.6 3.5 1 4.7 9.9 8.5 5.2 2.5 2 4.1 7.2 6.5 4.0 3 2.2 3.8 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Budissa Bautzen down, ZFC Meuselwitz across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,369 Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Budissa Bautzen at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). ZFC Meuselwitz away: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Budissa Bautzen, 1.86 for ZFC Meuselwitz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 28 Aug

BUDISSA BAUTZEN

LDWDWL0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3

ZFC MEUSELWITZ

WWWDWD3–2 · 1–0 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ZFC Meuselwitz	8	+11	20
2	Germania Halberstadt	8	+17	19
3	Auerbach	8	+10	17
4	Eilenburg	8	+13	16
5	VfL Halle	8	+3	15
6	Weissenfels	8	−1	12
7	Dresden II	8	+4	11
8	Union Sandersdorf	8	+5	10
9	Plauen	8	+2	10
10	SC Freital	8	+1	10
11	Budissa Bautzen	8	−5	9
12	Einheit Wernigerode	8	−6	8
13	Empor Glauchau	8	−5	6
14	Krieschow	8	−13	5
15	Einheit Rudolstadt	8	−15	3
16	FC Frankfurt	8	−21	3