Auerbach v FC Frankfurt prediction · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Auerbach 3–1 FC Frankfurt AUERBACH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Auerbach win~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.064

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Auerbach are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Auerbach 79%, draw 12%, FC Frankfurt 8%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Auerbach v FC FrankfurtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Auerbach win79%

Draw12%

FC Frankfurt win8%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV- Sud · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Auerbach

FC Frankfurt

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Süd

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Auerbach	7	+8	14
16	FC Frankfurt	7	−19	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · auerbach winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

79% The market–

Us79%

We make Auerbach a 79% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–1.0, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Auerbach v FC Frankfurt~~3.33 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 16 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 3~~4 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Auerbach win	79%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
FC Frankfurt win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Auerbach or draw	92%	–	–
Auerbach clean sheet	37%	–	–
FC Frankfurt clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 7.7%

0123450 1 4.4 5.0 2.4 2 7.3 7.2 3.7 3 7.7 7.6 3.9 4 6.3 6.1 3.1 5 4.3 4.1 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Auerbach down, FC Frankfurt across0–5 goals a side shown (86.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,364 Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Auerbach at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Frankfurt away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

3.33 goals for Auerbach, 1.01 for FC Frankfurt. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd this season · since 16 Aug

AUERBACH

WWDDWW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 5–1

FC FRANKFURT

LLLLWL2–4 · 0–8 · 2–3 · 2–5 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Germania Halberstadt	7	+19	19
2	ZFC Meuselwitz	7	+11	19
3	Eilenburg	7	+15	16
4	Auerbach	7	+8	14
5	VfL Halle	7	+1	12
6	Weissenfels	8	−1	12
7	Dresden II	8	+4	11
8	SC Freital	8	+1	10
9	Plauen	7	+2	9
10	Budissa Bautzen	7	−3	9
11	Einheit Wernigerode	8	−6	8
12	Union Sandersdorf	7	+3	7
13	Krieschow	8	−13	5
14	Empor Glauchau	7	−7	3
15	Einheit Rudolstadt	8	−15	3
16	FC Frankfurt	7	−19	3