Sparta Lichtenberg v Makkabi prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Sparta Lichtenberg 2–0 Makkabi SPARTA LICHTENBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Lichtenberg win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.360

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Lichtenberg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sparta Lichtenberg 51%, draw 20%, Makkabi 29%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Sparta Lichtenberg v MakkabiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sparta Lichtenberg win51%

Draw20%

Makkabi win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV-Nord · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sparta Lichtenberg

Makkabi

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Makkabi	8	−10	8
16	Sparta Lichtenberg	8	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta lichtenberg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Sparta Lichtenberg a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sparta Lichtenberg v Makkabi~~2.42 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~16 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sparta Lichtenberg win

Published at 50%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Lichtenberg win	51%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Makkabi win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Sparta Lichtenberg or draw	71%	–	–
Sparta Lichtenberg clean sheet	17%	–	–
Makkabi clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.5%

0123450 2.1 2.5 2.5 1 3.5 6.8 5.7 3.4 2 4.4 7.5 6.6 4.0 3 3.5 6.0 5.2 3.2 4 2.2 3.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Lichtenberg down, Makkabi across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,371 Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sparta Lichtenberg at home: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Makkabi away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.42 goals for Sparta Lichtenberg, 1.79 for Makkabi. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAK 1–0 SPA · SPA 3–2 MAK · MAK 5–2 SPA · SPA 1–4 MAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 29 Aug

SPARTA LICHTENBERG

LLWLLD1–3 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

MAKKABI

WLDLWL2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–8 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	+4	17
2	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	8	+5	16
3	Hertha Zehlendorf	8	+9	15
4	BAK '07	8	+3	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	+5	14
6	Hansa Rostock II	9	+8	13
7	Lichtenberg	8	+2	13
8	Anker Wismar	8	0	13
9	Tennis Borussia	9	0	12
10	Optik Rathenow	8	−2	10
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	8	−3	9
12	FC Lok Stendal	8	−3	8
13	Union Klosterfelde	8	−6	8
14	Makkabi	8	−10	8
15	Neustrelitz	8	−6	6
16	Sparta Lichtenberg	8	−6	6