Neustrelitz v Mecklenburg Schwerin prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Neustrelitz 2–0 Mecklenburg Schwerin NEUSTRELITZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Neustrelitz win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.280

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neustrelitz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neustrelitz 57%, draw 21%, Mecklenburg Schwerin 22%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Neustrelitz v Mecklenburg SchwerinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Neustrelitz win57%

Draw21%

Mecklenburg Schwerin win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV-Nord · matchday 8

VenueParkstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neustrelitz

Mecklenburg Schwerin

8Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	7	−1	9
16	Neustrelitz	7	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neustrelitz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Neustrelitz a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neustrelitz v Mecklenburg Schwerin~~2.25 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 14 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neustrelitz win	57%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Mecklenburg Schwerin win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Neustrelitz or draw	78%	–	–
Neustrelitz clean sheet	28%	–	–
Mecklenburg Schwerin clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.8 3.5 2.6 1 6.1 8.8 5.4 2.5 2 7.0 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 5.2 6.5 4.3 4 3.0 3.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neustrelitz down, Mecklenburg Schwerin across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,363 Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neustrelitz at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mecklenburg Schwerin away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Neustrelitz, 1.34 for Mecklenburg Schwerin. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MEC 0–3 NEU · NEU 4–1 MEC · NEU 0–1 MEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 14 Aug

NEUSTRELITZ

WLLLLL3–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 1–2

MECKLENBURG SCHWERIN

DWDLLD1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	8	+5	16
2	BAK '07	7	+6	15
3	Siedenbollentin	8	+6	14
4	Anker Wismar	8	0	13
5	Hertha Zehlendorf	7	+6	12
6	Lichtenberg	7	+2	12
7	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	7	+1	11
8	Optik Rathenow	7	−1	10
9	Hansa Rostock II	7	+7	9
10	Tennis Borussia	7	0	9
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	7	−1	9
12	Union Klosterfelde	8	−6	8
13	Makkabi	7	−8	8
14	FC Lok Stendal	7	−3	7
15	Sparta Lichtenberg	7	−6	5
16	Neustrelitz	7	−8	3