Mecklenburg Schwerin v Lichtenberg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Mecklenburg Schwerin 1–1 Lichtenberg LICHTENBERG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lichtenberg win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.988

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lichtenberg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mecklenburg Schwerin 22%, draw 21%, Lichtenberg 56%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Mecklenburg Schwerin v LichtenbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mecklenburg Schwerin win22%

Draw21%

Lichtenberg win56%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundNOFV-Nord · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mecklenburg Schwerin

Lichtenberg

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lichtenberg	8	+2	13
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	8	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lichtenberg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Lichtenberg a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mecklenburg Schwerin v Lichtenberg~~1.27 – 2.15

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lichtenberg win

Published at 55%, 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mecklenburg Schwerin win	22%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Lichtenberg win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Mecklenburg Schwerin or draw	44%	–	–
Mecklenburg Schwerin clean sheet	13%	–	–
Lichtenberg clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 4.2 6.9 7.5 5.4 3.0 1 3.9 9.2 9.0 6.4 3.5 2 2.8 5.5 5.7 4.1 2.2 3 2.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mecklenburg Schwerin down, Lichtenberg across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,371 Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Mecklenburg Schwerin at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lichtenberg away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Mecklenburg Schwerin, 2.15 for Lichtenberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 28 Aug

MECKLENBURG SCHWERIN

WDLLDL2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–2

LICHTENBERG

WLWWLD2–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	+4	17
2	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	8	+5	16
3	Hertha Zehlendorf	8	+9	15
4	BAK '07	8	+3	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	+5	14
6	Hansa Rostock II	9	+8	13
7	Lichtenberg	8	+2	13
8	Anker Wismar	8	0	13
9	Tennis Borussia	9	0	12
10	Optik Rathenow	8	−2	10
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	8	−3	9
12	FC Lok Stendal	8	−3	8
13	Union Klosterfelde	8	−6	8
14	Makkabi	8	−10	8
15	Neustrelitz	8	−6	6
16	Sparta Lichtenberg	8	−6	6