Hansa Rostock II v Lichtenberg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Hansa Rostock II 2–2 Lichtenberg HANSA ROSTOCK II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hansa Rostock II win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.929

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hansa Rostock II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hansa Rostock II 46%, draw 22%, Lichtenberg 32%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Hansa Rostock II v LichtenbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hansa Rostock II win46%

Draw22%

Lichtenberg win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV-Nord · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hansa Rostock II

Lichtenberg

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lichtenberg	7	+2	12
9	Hansa Rostock II	7	+7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hansa rostock ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Hansa Rostock II a 46% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hansa Rostock II v Lichtenberg~~2.08 – 1.69

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~9 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hansa Rostock II win	46%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Lichtenberg win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Hansa Rostock II or draw	68%	–	–
Hansa Rostock II clean sheet	19%	–	–
Lichtenberg clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 3.2 3.6 3.4 1 4.5 8.5 6.7 3.8 2 5.0 8.1 6.7 3.8 3 3.5 5.6 4.6 2.6 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hansa Rostock II down, Lichtenberg across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,363 Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hansa Rostock II at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lichtenberg away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Hansa Rostock II, 1.69 for Lichtenberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAN 1–0 LIC · LIC 4–1 HAN · LIC 1–2 HAN · HAN 0–3 LIC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 16 Aug

HANSA ROSTOCK II

LLDWWD0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 8–1 · 2–2

LICHTENBERG

LWLWWL1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	8	+5	16
2	BAK '07	7	+6	15
3	Siedenbollentin	8	+6	14
4	Anker Wismar	8	0	13
5	Hertha Zehlendorf	7	+6	12
6	Lichtenberg	7	+2	12
7	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	7	+1	11
8	Optik Rathenow	7	−1	10
9	Hansa Rostock II	7	+7	9
10	Tennis Borussia	7	0	9
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	7	−1	9
12	Union Klosterfelde	8	−6	8
13	Makkabi	7	−8	8
14	FC Lok Stendal	7	−3	7
15	Sparta Lichtenberg	7	−6	5
16	Neustrelitz	7	−8	3