FC Lok Stendal v Sparta Lichtenberg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

FC Lok Stendal 1–1 Sparta Lichtenberg SPARTA LICHTENBERG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Lichtenberg win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.985

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Lichtenberg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Lok Stendal 37%, draw 19%, Sparta Lichtenberg 44%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 79%.

The AI’s read on FC Lok Stendal v Sparta LichtenbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Lok Stendal win37%

Draw19%

Sparta Lichtenberg win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV-Nord · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Lok Stendal

Sparta Lichtenberg

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	FC Lok Stendal	7	−3	7
15	Sparta Lichtenberg	7	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta lichtenberg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Sparta Lichtenberg a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.4, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Lok Stendal v Sparta Lichtenberg~~2.21 – 2.43

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~14 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Lok Stendal win	37%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Sparta Lichtenberg win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	79%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
FC Lok Stendal or draw	56%	–	–
FC Lok Stendal clean sheet	10%	–	–
Sparta Lichtenberg clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.4%

0123450 2.4 3.1 2.5 1 2.1 5.7 6.1 4.8 3.0 2 2.6 5.7 6.4 5.0 3.1 3 4.1 4.7 3.6 2.2 4 2.3 2.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Lok Stendal down, Sparta Lichtenberg across0–5 goals a side shown (92.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,363 Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

FC Lok Stendal at home: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Lichtenberg away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for FC Lok Stendal, 2.43 for Sparta Lichtenberg. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 16 Aug

FC LOK STENDAL

LWWLLL2–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–2

SPARTA LICHTENBERG

DLLWLL1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	8	+5	16
2	BAK '07	7	+6	15
3	Siedenbollentin	8	+6	14
4	Anker Wismar	8	0	13
5	Hertha Zehlendorf	7	+6	12
6	Lichtenberg	7	+2	12
7	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	7	+1	11
8	Optik Rathenow	7	−1	10
9	Hansa Rostock II	7	+7	9
10	Tennis Borussia	7	0	9
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	7	−1	9
12	Union Klosterfelde	8	−6	8
13	Makkabi	7	−8	8
14	FC Lok Stendal	7	−3	7
15	Sparta Lichtenberg	7	−6	5
16	Neustrelitz	7	−8	3