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BAK '07 v Union Klosterfelde

BAK '07

1–1Full time

Union Klosterfelde

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

BAK '07 1–1 Union Klosterfelde BAK '07 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said BAK '07 win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.848

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

BAK '07 win42%

Draw25%

Union Klosterfelde win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bak '07 winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

42% The market–

Us42%

We make BAK '07 a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BAK '07 win	42%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Union Klosterfelde win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
BAK '07 or draw	67%	–	–
BAK '07 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Union Klosterfelde clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.7 6.1 4.9 2.4 1 7.0 11.3 7.5 3.7 2 6.1 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 3.4 4.7 3.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BAK '07 down, Union Klosterfelde across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,354 Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BAK '07 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Union Klosterfelde away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for BAK '07, 1.44 for Union Klosterfelde. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAK 3–0 UNI · UNI 2–1 BAK

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

BAK '07

DWWDWW0–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1

UNION KLOSTERFELDE

DWLLLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BAK '07	6	+6	14
2	Siedenbollentin	6	+7	13
3	Lichtenberg	6	+4	12
4	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	6	+2	10
5	Optik Rathenow	6	0	10
6	Hansa Rostock II	7	+7	9
7	Hertha Zehlendorf	6	+2	9
8	Mecklenburg Schwerin	7	−1	9
9	Anker Wismar	6	−2	9
10	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	6	0	8
11	FC Lok Stendal	6	−2	7
12	Union Klosterfelde	6	−4	7
13	Tennis Borussia	6	−1	6
14	Sparta Lichtenberg	6	−2	5
15	Makkabi	6	−9	5
16	Neustrelitz	6	−7	3