BAK '07 v FC Lok Stendal prediction · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BAK '07DrawFC Lok Stendal

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · BAK '07 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BAK '07 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BAK '07 57%, draw 21%, FC Lok Stendal 22%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on BAK '07 v FC Lok StendalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

BAK '07 win57%

Draw21%

FC Lok Stendal win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundNOFV-Nord · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BAK '07

FC Lok Stendal

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Nordost-Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	BAK '07	8	+3	15
13	FC Lok Stendal	8	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bak '07 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make BAK '07 a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BAK '07 v FC Lok Stendal~~2.17 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 8~~4 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BAK '07 win	57%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
FC Lok Stendal win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
BAK '07 or draw	78%	–	–
BAK '07 clean sheet	30%	–	–
FC Lok Stendal clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 4.2 3.9 2.8 1 6.9 9.2 5.5 2.4 2 7.6 8.9 5.6 2.5 3 5.5 6.3 3.9 4 3.1 3.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BAK '07 down, FC Lok Stendal across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,375 Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Nordost-Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

BAK '07 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Lok Stendal away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for BAK '07, 1.26 for FC Lok Stendal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord this season · since 30 Aug

BAK '07

WDWWDL3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

FC LOK STENDAL

WWLLLD2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	9	+6	19
2	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	+4	17
3	Hertha Zehlendorf	9	+8	15
4	BAK '07	8	+3	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	+5	14
6	Lichtenberg	9	+2	14
7	Hansa Rostock II	9	+8	13
8	Optik Rathenow	9	+3	13
9	Anker Wismar	9	−5	13
10	Tennis Borussia	9	0	12
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	9	−3	10
12	Sparta Lichtenberg	9	−4	9
13	FC Lok Stendal	8	−3	8
14	Union Klosterfelde	8	−6	8
15	Makkabi	9	−12	8
16	Neustrelitz	8	−6	6