Vorsfelde v Bersenbrück prediction · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Vorsfelde 1–3 Bersenbrück BERSENBRÜCK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bersenbrück win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.436

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bersenbrück are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vorsfelde 31%, draw 23%, Bersenbrück 46%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Vorsfelde v BersenbrückBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vorsfelde win31%

Draw23%

Bersenbrück win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundNiedersachsen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vorsfelde

Bersenbrück

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bersenbrück	9	+2	13
15	Vorsfelde	10	−17	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bersenbrück winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Bersenbrück a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vorsfelde v Bersenbrück~~1.60 – 1.99

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~15 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vorsfelde win	31%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Bersenbrück win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Vorsfelde or draw	54%	–	–
Vorsfelde clean sheet	14%	–	–
Bersenbrück clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 4.9 5.5 3.7 1 3.8 9.5 8.5 5.6 2.9 2 3.6 6.9 6.7 4.4 2.2 3 3.7 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vorsfelde down, Bersenbrück across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,415 Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vorsfelde at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bersenbrück away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Vorsfelde, 1.99 for Bersenbrück. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VOR 2–1 BER · BER 3–2 VOR · VOR 2–0 BER · BER 4–1 VOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 5 Sept

VORSFELDE

LLDDLL0–3 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 0–2

BERSENBRÜCK

LWWWLW1–4 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heeslinger SC	10	+17	21
2	Wilhelmshaven	10	+13	21
3	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	+10	21
4	Eintracht Braunschw. II	10	+15	20
5	Borussia Hildesheim	9	+7	19
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	+7	18
7	BW Lohne	10	+6	17
8	Bersenbrück	9	+2	13
9	Meppen II	10	−3	13
10	Nordhorn	10	−13	11
11	Verden 04	10	−2	10
12	Germania Egestorf	9	−9	8
13	Hemmingen	9	−15	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	−5	6
15	Vorsfelde	10	−17	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	9	−13	3