Verden 04 v Meppen II prediction · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Verden 04 1–2 Meppen II VERDEN 04 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Verden 04 win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Verden 04 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Verden 04 44%, draw 25%, Meppen II 32%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Verden 04 v Meppen IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Verden 04 win44%

Draw25%

Meppen II win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundNiedersachsen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Verden 04

Meppen II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Meppen II	10	−3	13
11	Verden 04	10	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · verden 04 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Verden 04 a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Verden 04 v Meppen II~~1.75 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Verden 04 win	44%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Meppen II win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Verden 04 or draw	68%	–	–
Verden 04 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Meppen II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 5.1 4.4 2.1 1 6.2 11.0 7.4 3.6 2 6.2 8.8 6.4 3.1 3 3.6 5.1 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Verden 04 down, Meppen II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,415 Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Verden 04 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Meppen II away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Verden 04, 1.47 for Meppen II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VER 3–2 MEP · MEP 1–1 VER · VER 1–1 MEP · MEP 1–1 VER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 6 Sept

VERDEN 04

DLDDWL2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–2

MEPPEN II

LLLWWW2–3 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heeslinger SC	10	+17	21
2	Wilhelmshaven	10	+13	21
3	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	+10	21
4	Eintracht Braunschw. II	10	+15	20
5	Borussia Hildesheim	9	+7	19
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	+7	18
7	BW Lohne	10	+6	17
8	Bersenbrück	9	+2	13
9	Meppen II	10	−3	13
10	Nordhorn	10	−13	11
11	Verden 04	10	−2	10
12	Germania Egestorf	9	−9	8
13	Hemmingen	9	−15	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	−5	6
15	Vorsfelde	10	−17	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	9	−13	3