Spelle-Venhaus v Nordhorn prediction · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Spelle-Venhaus 2–2 Nordhorn SPELLE-VENHAUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spelle-Venhaus win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.221

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spelle-Venhaus are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spelle-Venhaus 71%, draw 16%, Nordhorn 13%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Spelle-Venhaus v NordhornBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Spelle-Venhaus win71%

Draw16%

Nordhorn win13%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundNiedersachsen · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spelle-Venhaus

Nordhorn

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Spelle-Venhaus	10	+11	21
10	Nordhorn	11	−13	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spelle-venhaus winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Spelle-Venhaus a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spelle-Venhaus v Nordhorn~~2.86 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 12~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spelle-Venhaus win

Published at 70%, 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spelle-Venhaus win	71%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Nordhorn win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Spelle-Venhaus or draw	87%	–	–
Spelle-Venhaus clean sheet	32%	–	–
Nordhorn clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.6 1 4.7 6.6 3.5 2 7.3 8.3 4.8 3 6.8 7.7 4.5 4 4.9 5.5 3.2 5 2.9 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Spelle-Venhaus down, Nordhorn across0–5 goals a side shown (92.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,421 Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Spelle-Venhaus at home: 3.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nordhorn away: 1.60 scored, 2.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.86 goals for Spelle-Venhaus, 1.17 for Nordhorn. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 6 Sept

SPELLE-VENHAUS

DDWLWW2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 5–1

NORDHORN

WLDLLD2–1 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	11	+16	23
2	Heeslinger SC	11	+17	22
3	Wilhelmshaven	10	+13	21
4	Spelle-Venhaus	10	+11	21
5	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	+10	21
6	Borussia Hildesheim	10	+7	20
7	BW Lohne	10	+6	17
8	Bersenbrück	10	+4	16
9	Meppen II	11	−2	16
10	Nordhorn	11	−13	12
11	Verden 04	11	−3	10
12	Germania Egestorf	10	−9	9
13	Hemmingen	10	−19	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	−5	6
15	Vorsfelde	11	−19	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	10	−14	3