Spelle-Venhaus v Bersenbrück prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Spelle-VenhausDrawBersenbrück

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Spelle-Venhaus 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spelle-Venhaus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spelle-Venhaus 59%, draw 19%, Bersenbrück 22%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Spelle-Venhaus v BersenbrückBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Spelle-Venhaus win59%

Draw19%

Bersenbrück win22%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:30

RoundNiedersachsen · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spelle-Venhaus

Bersenbrück

5Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Spelle-Venhaus	11	+11	22
8	Bersenbrück	11	0	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spelle-venhaus winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Spelle-Venhaus a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spelle-Venhaus v Bersenbrück~~2.65 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 16~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spelle-Venhaus win

Published at 58%, 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spelle-Venhaus win	59%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Bersenbrück win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Spelle-Venhaus or draw	78%	–	–
Spelle-Venhaus clean sheet	21%	–	–
Bersenbrück clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.2 1 3.4 6.8 4.9 2.6 2 5.2 7.9 6.2 3.3 3 4.5 6.8 5.3 2.8 4 3.0 4.5 3.5 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spelle-Venhaus down, Bersenbrück across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,424 Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spelle-Venhaus at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bersenbrück away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.65 goals for Spelle-Venhaus, 1.58 for Bersenbrück. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BER 2–2 SPE · SPE 4–2 BER · BER 4–3 SPE · SPE 4–2 BER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 13 Sept

SPELLE-VENHAUS

DWLWWD1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 5–1 · 2–2

BERSENBRÜCK

WWLWWL2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	12	+18	26
2	Heeslinger SC	11	+17	22
3	Spelle-Venhaus	11	+11	22
4	Wilhelmshaven	10	+13	21
5	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	+10	21
6	Borussia Hildesheim	11	+5	20
7	BW Lohne	10	+6	17
8	Bersenbrück	11	0	16
9	Meppen II	11	−2	16
10	Verden 04	12	+1	13
11	Nordhorn	12	−13	13
12	Germania Egestorf	10	−9	9
13	Hemmingen	10	−19	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	−5	6
15	Vorsfelde	11	−19	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	10	−14	3