Schwarz-Weiß Rehden v Wilhelmshaven prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 1–1 Wilhelmshaven SCHWARZ-WEISS REHDEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 39%, draw 28%, Wilhelmshaven 33%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Schwarz-Weiß Rehden v WilhelmshavenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win39%

Draw28%

Wilhelmshaven win33%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundNiedersachsen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden

Wilhelmshaven

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Wilhelmshaven	9	+13	20
4	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	9	+10	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schwarz-weiß rehden winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Schwarz-Weiß Rehden a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schwarz-Weiß Rehden v Wilhelmshaven~~1.40 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 20~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win	39%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Wilhelmshaven win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden or draw	67%	–	–
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden clean sheet	28%	–	–
Wilhelmshaven clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.2 7.9 5.6 2.4 1 8.7 13.1 7.7 3.3 2 6.7 8.4 5.3 2.3 3 3.2 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schwarz-Weiß Rehden down, Wilhelmshaven across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,413 Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Schwarz-Weiß Rehden at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Wilhelmshaven away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Schwarz-Weiß Rehden, 1.28 for Wilhelmshaven. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WIL 1–4 SCH · SCH 1–2 WIL · SCH 0–2 WIL · WIL 2–2 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 28 Aug

SCHWARZ-WEISS REHDEN

WWWWLW4–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 3–1

WILHELMSHAVEN

LDWDWW0–1 · 2–2 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heeslinger SC	10	+17	21
2	Eintracht Braunschw. II	10	+15	20
3	Wilhelmshaven	9	+13	20
4	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	9	+10	20
5	Borussia Hildesheim	9	+7	19
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	+7	18
7	BW Lohne	9	+4	14
8	Bersenbrück	9	+2	13
9	Meppen II	10	−3	13
10	Nordhorn	10	−13	11
11	Verden 04	10	−2	10
12	Germania Egestorf	9	−9	8
13	Hemmingen	9	−15	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	9	−3	6
15	Vorsfelde	10	−17	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	9	−13	3