Hemmingen v Spelle-Venhaus prediction · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Hemmingen 1–5 Spelle-Venhaus SPELLE-VENHAUS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spelle-Venhaus win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.253

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spelle-Venhaus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hemmingen 20%, draw 21%, Spelle-Venhaus 59%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Hemmingen v Spelle-VenhausBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hemmingen win20%

Draw21%

Spelle-Venhaus win59%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundNiedersachsen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hemmingen

Spelle-Venhaus

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	+7	18
13	Hemmingen	9	−15	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spelle-venhaus winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Spelle-Venhaus a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hemmingen v Spelle-Venhaus~~1.31 – 2.33

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 18~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hemmingen win	20%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Spelle-Venhaus win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Hemmingen or draw	41%	–	–
Hemmingen clean sheet	10%	–	–
Spelle-Venhaus clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%

0123450 3.6 5.6 7.1 5.5 3.2 1 2.9 8.7 9.0 6.9 4.1 2 2.4 5.2 5.9 4.5 2.7 3 2.3 2.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hemmingen down, Spelle-Venhaus across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,415 Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Hemmingen at home: 1.25 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 4). Spelle-Venhaus away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Hemmingen, 2.33 for Spelle-Venhaus. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 28 Aug

HEMMINGEN

WWLLLL2–1 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–3

SPELLE-VENHAUS

WDDWLW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Heeslinger SC	10	+17	21
2	Wilhelmshaven	10	+13	21
3	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	+10	21
4	Eintracht Braunschw. II	10	+15	20
5	Borussia Hildesheim	9	+7	19
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	+7	18
7	BW Lohne	10	+6	17
8	Bersenbrück	9	+2	13
9	Meppen II	10	−3	13
10	Nordhorn	10	−13	11
11	Verden 04	10	−2	10
12	Germania Egestorf	9	−9	8
13	Hemmingen	9	−15	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	−5	6
15	Vorsfelde	10	−17	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	9	−13	3