Bersenbrück v Verden 04 prediction · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Bersenbrück 0–4 Verden 04 BERSENBRÜCK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bersenbrück win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bersenbrück are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bersenbrück 49%, draw 21%, Verden 04 30%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Bersenbrück v Verden 04Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bersenbrück win49%

Draw21%

Verden 04 win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundNiedersachsen · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bersenbrück

Verden 04

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Niedersachsen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bersenbrück	10	+4	16
11	Verden 04	11	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bersenbrück winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Bersenbrück a 49% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bersenbrück v Verden 04~~2.24 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 11 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 10~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bersenbrück win

Published at 47%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bersenbrück win	49%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Verden 04 win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Bersenbrück or draw	70%	–	–
Bersenbrück clean sheet	18%	–	–
Verden 04 clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.8 2.7 2.9 1 3.6 8.0 6.3 3.6 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 4.0 3 3.5 5.9 5.1 3.0 4 3.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bersenbrück down, Verden 04 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,421 Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niedersachsen matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bersenbrück at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Verden 04 away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Bersenbrück, 1.74 for Verden 04. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VER 4–0 BER · BER 3–2 VER · BER 2–0 VER · VER 6–1 BER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niedersachsen this season · since 11 Sept

BERSENBRÜCK

WWWLWW5–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 5–0 · 3–1

VERDEN 04

LDDWLL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	11	+16	23
2	Heeslinger SC	11	+17	22
3	Wilhelmshaven	10	+13	21
4	Spelle-Venhaus	10	+11	21
5	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	+10	21
6	Borussia Hildesheim	10	+7	20
7	BW Lohne	10	+6	17
8	Bersenbrück	10	+4	16
9	Meppen II	11	−2	16
10	Nordhorn	11	−13	12
11	Verden 04	11	−3	10
12	Germania Egestorf	10	−9	9
13	Hemmingen	10	−19	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	−5	6
15	Vorsfelde	11	−19	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	10	−14	3