SW Essen v Schonnebeck prediction · Oberliga - Niederrhein

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

SW Essen 1–4 Schonnebeck SCHONNEBECK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Schonnebeck win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.217

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Schonnebeck are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SW Essen 20%, draw 18%, Schonnebeck 62%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on SW Essen v SchonnebeckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SW Essen win20%

Draw18%

Schonnebeck win62%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SW Essen

Schonnebeck

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schonnebeck winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Schonnebeck a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SW Essen v Schonnebeck~~1.47 – 2.67

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 26~~16 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SW Essen win	20%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Schonnebeck win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
SW Essen or draw	38%	–	–
SW Essen clean sheet	8%	–	–
Schonnebeck clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.1%

0123450 2.1 4.1 5.6 4.9 3.3 1 2.2 6.7 8.1 7.0 4.7 2.62 4.7 5.9 5.1 3.4 3 2.3 3.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SW Essen down, Schonnebeck across0–5 goals a side shown (93.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,787 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.80 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SW Essen at home: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Schonnebeck away: 3.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for SW Essen, 2.67 for Schonnebeck. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.80

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SWE 0–4 SCH · SCH 3–5 SWE · SWE 4–1 SCH · SCH 2–0 SWE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 13 Sept

SW ESSEN

DLLDLL1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1

SCHONNEBECK

WWWWDW5–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	10	+24	26
2	SSVg Velbert	10	+11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	11	+12	21
4	SC St. Tönis	11	+5	18
5	Sonsbeck	10	+4	16
6	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
7	BW Dingden	10	0	16
8	Monheim	10	+6	15
9	Solingen-Wald	10	−4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	10	+9	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	+1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	−1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	+5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	−13	8
15	Büderich	10	−14	7
16	SW Essen	10	−11	6
17	Meerbusch	10	−14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	−22	4