SSVg Velbert v Holzheimer SG prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SSVg VelbertDrawHolzheimer SG

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · SSVg Velbert 80%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SSVg Velbert are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SSVg Velbert 80%, draw 12%, Holzheimer SG 8%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on SSVg Velbert v Holzheimer SGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

SSVg Velbert win80%

Draw12%

Holzheimer SG win8%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SSVg Velbert

Holzheimer SG

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	SSVg Velbert	10	+11	24
18	Holzheimer SG	10	−22	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ssvg velbert winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make SSVg Velbert an 80% chance to win. The model expects 3.4–1.0, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SSVg Velbert v Holzheimer SG~~3.42 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 11 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 4~~2 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SSVg Velbert win	80%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Holzheimer SG win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
SSVg Velbert or draw	92%	–	–
SSVg Velbert clean sheet	36%	–	–
Holzheimer SG clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.6%

0123450 1 4.1 4.6 2.3 2 6.9 7.0 3.7 3 7.5 7.6 4.0 4 6.3 6.3 3.3 5 4.4 4.3 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+SSVg Velbert down, Holzheimer SG across0–5 goals a side shown (85.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,789 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

SSVg Velbert at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Holzheimer SG away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.42 goals for SSVg Velbert, 1.04 for Holzheimer SG. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 11 Sept

SSVG VELBERT

WWWWWW2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–2

HOLZHEIMER SG

DLLWLL3–3 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	11	+27	29
2	SSVg Velbert	10	+11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	11	+12	21
4	Monheim	11	+7	18
5	SC St. Tönis	11	+5	18
6	Sonsbeck	10	+4	16
7	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
8	BW Dingden	10	0	16
9	Solingen-Wald	10	−4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	11	+8	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	+1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	−1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	+5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	−13	8
15	Büderich	10	−14	7
16	SW Essen	11	−14	6
17	Meerbusch	10	−14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	−22	4