Solingen-Wald v SSVg Velbert prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Solingen-Wald 2–3 SSVg Velbert SSVG VELBERT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SSVg Velbert win~~61%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.227

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SSVg Velbert are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Solingen-Wald 21%, draw 18%, SSVg Velbert 61%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Solingen-Wald v SSVg VelbertBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Solingen-Wald win21%

Draw18%

SSVg Velbert win61%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Solingen-Wald

SSVg Velbert

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	SSVg Velbert	9	+10	21
7	Solingen-Wald	9	−3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ssvg velbert winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

61% The market46%

Us61%

~~Market~~46%

We make SSVg Velbert a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Solingen-Wald v SSVg Velbert~~1.57 – 2.74

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 21~~7 v 2

~~The market · SSVg Velbert win~~46% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SSVg Velbert win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Solingen-Wald win	21%	34%	−13
Draw	18%	20%	−2
SSVg Velbert win	61%	46%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	78%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Solingen-Wald or draw	39%	54%	−15
Solingen-Wald clean sheet	7%	–	–
SSVg Velbert clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.7%

0123450 3.7 5.1 4.6 3.1 1 2.0 6.2 7.7 6.8 4.7 2.62 4.6 5.9 5.3 3.6 2.03 2.4 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Solingen-Wald down, SSVg Velbert across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,781 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Solingen-Wald at home: 2.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 4). SSVg Velbert away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Solingen-Wald, 2.74 for SSVg Velbert. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 6 Sept

SOLINGEN-WALD

LWWLWW1–4 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 4–3 · 3–2

SSVG VELBERT

LWWWWW2–4 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	9	+21	23
2	SSVg Velbert	9	+10	21
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	+12	20
4	Sonsbeck	10	+4	16
5	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
6	BW Dingden	10	0	16
7	Solingen-Wald	9	−3	15
8	SC St. Tönis	9	+4	14
9	Germania Ratingen	10	+1	14
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	9	+9	13
11	Wuppertaler SV	10	+5	13
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	9	−1	13
13	Monheim	9	+4	12
14	Scherpenberg	9	−10	8
15	Büderich	10	−14	7
16	SW Essen	10	−11	6
17	Meerbusch	9	−12	5
18	Holzheimer SG	9	−21	4