SF Baumberg v BW Dingden prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SF BaumbergDrawBW Dingden

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · SF Baumberg 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SF Baumberg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SF Baumberg 43%, draw 25%, BW Dingden 33%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on SF Baumberg v BW DingdenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

SF Baumberg win43%

Draw25%

BW Dingden win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SF Baumberg

BW Dingden

9Days since last match9

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
7	BW Dingden	10	0	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sf baumberg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make SF Baumberg a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SF Baumberg v BW Dingden~~1.66 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~6 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SF Baumberg win	43%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
BW Dingden win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
SF Baumberg or draw	67%	–	–
SF Baumberg clean sheet	25%	–	–
BW Dingden clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.3 6.2 4.7 2.3 1 7.2 11.2 7.6 3.6 2 6.3 8.7 6.2 3.0 3 3.5 4.8 3.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SF Baumberg down, BW Dingden across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,789 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SF Baumberg at home: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). BW Dingden away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for SF Baumberg, 1.43 for BW Dingden. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SFB 0–1 BWD · BWD 1–2 SFB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 13 Sept

SF BAUMBERG

DWLLDD4–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–0

BW DINGDEN

LWLWWL0–5 · 3–0 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	10	+24	26
2	SSVg Velbert	10	+11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	11	+12	21
4	SC St. Tönis	11	+5	18
5	Sonsbeck	10	+4	16
6	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
7	BW Dingden	10	0	16
8	Monheim	10	+6	15
9	Solingen-Wald	10	−4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	10	+9	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	+1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	−1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	+5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	−13	8
15	Büderich	10	−14	7
16	SW Essen	10	−11	6
17	Meerbusch	10	−14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	−22	4