Schonnebeck v Scherpenberg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Schonnebeck 4–1 Scherpenberg SCHONNEBECK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Schonnebeck win~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.051

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Schonnebeck are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schonnebeck 82%, draw 11%, Scherpenberg 8%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Schonnebeck v ScherpenbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Schonnebeck win82%

Draw11%

Scherpenberg win8%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schonnebeck

Scherpenberg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schonnebeck winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

82% The market–

Us82%

We make Schonnebeck an 82% chance to win. The model expects 3.7–1.1, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schonnebeck v Scherpenberg~~3.73 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 4 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 23 v 8~~1 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schonnebeck win	82%	–	–
Draw	11%	–	–
Scherpenberg win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	70%	–	–
Schonnebeck or draw	92%	–	–
Schonnebeck clean sheet	32%	–	–
Scherpenberg clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.2%

0123450 1 3.0 3.8 2.1 2 5.5 6.2 3.6 3 6.4 7.2 4.1 4 5.8 6.5 3.7 5 4.4 4.8 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Schonnebeck down, Scherpenberg across0–5 goals a side shown (81.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,781 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Schonnebeck at home: 4.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Scherpenberg away: 0.75 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

3.73 goals for Schonnebeck, 1.15 for Scherpenberg. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 4 Sept

SCHONNEBECK

WWWWWD7–1 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–3

SCHERPENBERG

LLLWLL1–6 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	9	+21	23
2	SSVg Velbert	9	+10	21
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	+12	20
4	Sonsbeck	10	+4	16
5	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
6	BW Dingden	10	0	16
7	Solingen-Wald	9	−3	15
8	SC St. Tönis	9	+4	14
9	Germania Ratingen	10	+1	14
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	9	+9	13
11	Wuppertaler SV	10	+5	13
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	9	−1	13
13	Monheim	9	+4	12
14	Scherpenberg	9	−10	8
15	Büderich	10	−14	7
16	SW Essen	10	−11	6
17	Meerbusch	9	−12	5
18	Holzheimer SG	9	−21	4